Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Китай. Финал · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Royal Never Give Uploss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
LGD Gaming
Kunkkasignature
NothingToSay · 15 games
Banesignature
y` · 14 games
Tidehuntersignature
y` · 14 games
Grimstrokesignature
XinQ · 10 games
Snapfiresignature
XinQ · 8 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Ame · 8 games
Weaversignature
XinQ · 8 games
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 7 games
Royal Never Give Up
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
458 picks · 274 bans
Mars
435 picks · 593 bans
Tiny
403 picks · 470 bans
Sand King
353 picks · 473 bans
Death Prophet
350 picks · 763 bans
Ember Spirit
327 picks · 495 bans
Storm Spirit
307 picks · 446 bans
Pangolier
296 picks · 443 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 57%
Hero pool strength60% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head6 – 4
Model total82% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:8
LGD Gaming 82%Royal Never Give Up 18%
The model gave 82% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 24:09.
Game 2prediction correct39:25
LGD Gaming 82%Royal Never Give Up 18%
The model gave 82% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 34:12.
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 82%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2