Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0series probability
94%6%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SSolitudeloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
LGD Gaming
Tinysignature
XinQ · 19 games
Razorsignature
Faith_bian · 14 games
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 13 games
Dazzlesignature
y` · 12 games
Death Prophetsignature
Faith_bian · 12 games
Chensignature
y` · 11 games
Marcisignature
XinQ · 11 games
Enchantresssignature
y` · 9 games
Solitude
Pangolieroften banned
7e · 3 games
Tusk
Undyne_ · 3 games
Alchemistoften banned
Undyne_ · 2 games
Primal Beastoften banned
7e · 2 games
Warlock
Undyne_ · 2 games
Abaddon
Undyne_ · 1 game
Earth Spirit
7e · 1 game
Marsoften banned
7e · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
344 picks · 339 bans
Tusk
336 picks · 328 bans
Mirana
219 picks · 223 bans
Pangolier
215 picks · 541 bans
Crystal Maiden
209 picks · 145 bans
Snapfire
205 picks · 114 bans
Leshrac
202 picks · 435 bans
Silencer
200 picks · 234 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 50%
Hero pool strength66% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total94% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:1
LGD Gaming 80%Solitude 20%
The model gave 80% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 19:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Linashiro
Dragon KnightSon GoKu
TinyNothingToSay
PhoenixpLAnet
Abaddony`
Game 2prediction correct31:6
LGD Gaming 79%Solitude 21%
The model gave 79% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 22:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemistshiro
Nature's ProphetSon GoKu
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
Keeper of the LightpLAnet
Treant Protectory`
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 94%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2