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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Asterwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
NothingToSay · 15 games
67%
Bane
Banesignature
y` · 14 games
71%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
y` · 14 games
79%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
XinQ · 9 games
89%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
XinQ · 8 games
63%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Ame · 8 games
75%
Weaver
Weaversignature
XinQ · 8 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 7 games
100%

Team Aster

Bane
Banesignature
Fantasy · 26 games
77%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Fantasy · 22 games
64%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 22 games
55%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Fantasy · 20 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xxs · 18 games
72%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
BoBoKa · 17 games
59%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Ori · 16 games
50%
Io
Iosignature
BoBoKa · 13 games
85%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
428 picks · 272 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
412 picks · 548 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
367 picks · 425 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
340 picks · 696 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
305 picks · 448 bans
53%
Sand King
Sand King
300 picks · 403 bans
54%
Weaver
Weaver
266 picks · 313 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
264 picks · 394 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 58%
Hero pool strength53% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head5 – 3
Model total80% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:17
LGD Gaming 65%Team Aster 35%
The model gave 65% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 32:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyAme
57% · 245 games48% · 116 games
JuggernautMonet
Juggernaut
Mars
MarsNothingToSay
47% · 393 games51% · 196 games
RazorOri
Razor
Death Prophet
Death ProphetFaith_bian
48% · 239 games50% · 315 games
Sand KingXxs
Sand King
Warlock
Warlocky`
53% · 17 games49% · 272 games
HoodwinkBoBoKa
Hoodwink
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritXinQ
50% · 80 games49% · 75 games
PugnaFantasy
Pugna
Game 2prediction missed26:33
LGD Gaming 67%Team Aster 33%
The model gave 67% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Team Aster in 53:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetFaith_bian
49% · 47 games53% · 163 games
MedusaMonet
Medusa
Sand King
Sand KingNothingToSay
47% · 176 games50% · 190 games
PuckOri
Puck
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidAme
47% · 131 game46% · 207 games
PangolierXxs
Pangolier
Mirana
MiranaXinQ
58% · 194 games53% · 62 games
PugnaFantasy
Pugna
Treant Protector
Treant Protectory`
54% · 121 game40% · 47 games
Shadow ShamanBoBoKa
Shadow Shaman
Game 3prediction missed3:23
LGD Gaming 65%Team Aster 35%
The model gave 65% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Team Aster in 24:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingAme
39% · 145 games52% · 283 games
TinyMonet
Tiny
Puck
PuckNothingToSay
46% · 214 games51% · 213 games
Storm SpiritOri
Storm Spirit
Necrophos
NecrophosFaith_bian
51% · 72 games59% · 65 games
BrewmasterXxs
Brewmaster
Pangolier
PangolierXinQ
48% · 239 games53% · 217 games
IoBoBoKa
Io
Grimstroke
Grimstrokey`
49% · 240 games53% · 132 games
Winter WyvernFantasy
Winter Wyvern
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 80%
Series resultTeam Aster 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3