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The International 10 (2021) · BO2
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingloss 1:1
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Secretloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xiao8 · 25 games
68%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
XinQ · 23 games
78%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
NothingToSay · 20 games
70%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
y` · 19 games
74%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
y` · 18 games
83%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Ame · 17 games
82%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Faith_bian · 16 games
81%
Axe
Axesignature
Faith_bian · 15 games
80%

Team Secret

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Puppey · 8 games
75%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Nisha · 7 games
57%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Puppey · 5 games
60%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Puppey · 5 games
40%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
zai · 5 games
80%
Sven
Svenoften banned
MATUMBAMAN · 5 games
60%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernoften banned
Puppey · 5 games
60%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
zai · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
307 picks · 179 bans
52%
Lina
Lina
284 picks · 538 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
283 picks · 405 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
266 picks · 91 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
261 picks · 371 bans
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
245 picks · 257 bans
59%
Luna
Luna
228 picks · 325 bans
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
219 picks · 375 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 50%
Hero pool strength61% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total64% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:45
LGD Gaming 56%Team Secret 44%
The model gave 56% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Team Secret in 50:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistAme
45% · 19 games57% · 93 games
TinyMATUMBAMAN
Tiny
Death Prophet
Death ProphetNothingToSay
55% · 114 games56% · 59 games
Queen of PainNisha
Queen of Pain
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageXinQ
42% · 23 games41% · 88 games
RubickYapzOr
Rubick
Earthshaker
EarthshakerFaith_bian
63% · 53 games46% · 35 games
Magnuszai
Magnus
Clockwerk
Clockwerky`
40% · 81 game48% · 15 games
Ogre MagiPuppey
Ogre Magi
Game 2prediction correct25:9
LGD Gaming 58%Team Secret 42%
The model gave 58% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 31:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingAme
50% · 93 games50% · 10 games
ClinkzMATUMBAMAN
Clinkz
Tinker
TinkerNothingToSay
63% · 4 games51% · 82 games
Doomzai
Doom
Tidehunter
TidehunterFaith_bian
55% · 100 games54% · 59 games
KunkkaNisha
Kunkka
Chen
Cheny`
30% · 6 games45% · 32 games
Ogre MagiPuppey
Ogre Magi
Snapfire
SnapfireXinQ
49% · 66 games44% · 86 games
RubickYapzOr
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 64%
Accuracy by game1 of 2