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Gamers8 Riyadh Masters · BO2
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Spiritloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Bane
Bane
y` · 11 games
45%
Doom
Doomsignature
Faith_bian · 9 games
67%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ame · 9 games
89%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Faith_bian · 9 games
78%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Faith_bian · 8 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 8 games
75%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Ame · 8 games
63%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
NothingToSay · 8 games
50%

Team Spirit

Bane
Banesignature
Miposhka · 16 games
63%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Yatoro · 11 games
64%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Mira · 11 games
64%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Mira · 10 games
70%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 10 games
90%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Collapse · 10 games
70%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Yatoro · 10 games
70%
Mars
Marssignature
Collapse · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
578 picks · 442 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
410 picks · 874 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
382 picks · 598 bans
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
362 picks · 474 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
346 picks · 177 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
324 picks · 221 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
299 picks · 577 bans
44%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
298 picks · 352 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 57%
Hero pool strength52% Team Spirit
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total68% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:13
LGD Gaming 59%Team Spirit 41%
The model gave 59% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 29:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidAme
43% · 3 games52% · 87 games
Chaos KnightYatoro
Chaos Knight
Razor
RazorFaith_bian
50% · 179 games48% · 116 games
Queen of PainTORONTOTOKYO
Queen of Pain
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNothingToSay
48% · 167 games58% · 73 games
BloodseekerCollapse
Bloodseeker
Marci
MarciXinQ
56% · 74 games39% · 60 games
ViperMiposhka
Viper
Warlock
Warlocky`
45% · 24 games51% · 111 games
ClockwerkMira
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct25:16
LGD Gaming 59%Team Spirit 41%
The model gave 59% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 28:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidAme
55% · 18 games52% · 56 games
BloodseekerYatoro
Bloodseeker
Razor
RazorFaith_bian
45% · 258 games50% · 101 game
Storm SpiritTORONTOTOKYO
Storm Spirit
Zeus
ZeusNothingToSay
39% · 58 games53% · 242 games
MarsCollapse
Mars
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritXinQ
42% · 106 games55% · 116 games
IoMira
Io
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassiny`
56% · 153 games55% · 78 games
Winter WyvernMiposhka
Winter Wyvern
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 68%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2