?
arrow_backBack to match
PGL Wallachia Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Yandexwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Thiolicor · 30 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
KJ · 22 games
55%
Bane
Banesignature
KJ · 20 games
60%
Necrophos
Necrophosoften banned
Yuma · 17 games
53%
Windranger
Windranger
Thiolicor · 16 games
56%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Wisper · 14 games
57%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Thiolicor · 13 games
62%
Puck
Pucksignature
TaiLung · 13 games
69%

Team Yandex

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Saksa · 20 games
60%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
Malady · 18 games
89%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 16 games
81%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Watson · 16 games
75%
Kez
Kezsignature
Watson · 15 games
80%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
DM · 14 games
57%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Saksa · 14 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 13 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
498 picks · 299 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
387 picks · 167 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
372 picks · 166 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
325 picks · 492 bans
59%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
310 picks · 310 bans
54%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
303 picks · 283 bans
59%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
291 picks · 488 bans
53%
Undying
Undying
275 picks · 359 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 67%
Hero pool strength56% Team Yandex
Head-to-head1 – 4
Model total79% Team Yandex
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:36
LGD Gaming 31%Team Yandex 69%
The model gave 69% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 43:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendWits
47% · 348 games55% · 136 games
NecrophosATF
Necrophos
Dark Seer
Dark SeerDavai
49% · 158 games48% · 300 games
KezWatson
Kez
Void Spirit
Void SpiritSumaiL
40% · 176 games59% · 462 games
Ember SpiritChira JUNIOR
Ember Spirit
Hoodwink
HoodwinkThiolicor
49% · 623 games54% · 226 games
Winter WyvernMalady
Winter Wyvern
Bane
BaneSneyking
50% · 254 games49% · 435 games
WindrangerSaksa
Windranger
Game 2prediction correct30:48
LGD Gaming 32%Team Yandex 68%
The model gave 68% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 52:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckSumaiL
49% · 177 games54% · 102 games
HuskarATF
Huskar
Windranger
WindrangerWits
43% · 153 games56% · 61 game
IoWatson
Io
Largo
LargoDavai
50% · 113 games57% · 97 games
Night StalkerChira JUNIOR
Night Stalker
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeThiolicor
49% · 43 games48% · 96 games
Witch DoctorMalady
Witch Doctor
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernSneyking
56% · 134 games43% · 264 games
Dark WillowSaksa
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Yandex · 79%
Series resultTeam Yandex 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2