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OGA Dota PIT Invitational · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
y` · 35 games
74%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
XinQ · 30 games
60%
Puck
Pucksignature
NothingToSay · 27 games
78%
Mars
Marssignature
Faith_bian · 25 games
72%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
NothingToSay · 24 games
71%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Faith_bian · 21 game
76%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
XinQ · 20 games
75%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
NothingToSay · 20 games
70%

Tundra Esports

Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
33 · 19 games
74%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Fata · 16 games
81%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Nine · 15 games
100%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Sneyking · 14 games
57%
Luna
Lunasignature
Skiter · 12 games
83%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Sneyking · 12 games
75%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Sneyking · 12 games
67%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Nine · 12 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
380 picks · 171 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
349 picks · 127 bans
48%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
260 picks · 521 bans
57%
Lina
Lina
259 picks · 429 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
255 picks · 344 bans
47%
Luna
Luna
251 picks · 341 bans
52%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
248 picks · 244 bans
54%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
237 picks · 495 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 68%
Hero pool strength50% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total61% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:9
LGD Gaming 54%Tundra Esports 46%
The model gave 54% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 28:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerAme
52% · 37 games44% · 30 games
Dark SeerNine
Dark Seer
Lycan
LycanFaith_bian
33% · 21 game55% · 26 games
SvenSkiter
Sven
Venomancer
VenomancerXiao8
57% · 3 games51% · 21 game
Night Stalker33
Night Stalker
Monkey King
Monkey KingXinQ
37% · 40 games65% · 41 game
Shadow DemonSneyking
Shadow Demon
Bane
Baney`
58% · 20 games71% · 3 games
JakiroFata
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct26:8
LGD Gaming 56%Tundra Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 22:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingAme
32% · 99 games54% · 29 games
ClinkzSkiter
Clinkz
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFaith_bian
58% · 72 games46% · 141 game
OracleNine
Oracle
Batrider
BatriderXiao8
48% · 109 games60% · 15 games
Vengeful Spirit33
Vengeful Spirit
Snapfire
SnapfireXinQ
56% · 121 game51% · 211 games
LionSneyking
Lion
Elder Titan
Elder Titany`
52% · 121 game52% · 126 games
AbaddonFata
Abaddon
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 61%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2