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The International 10 (2021) · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Virtus.proloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
XinQ · 28 games
79%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xiao8 · 26 games
69%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
y` · 24 games
75%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
NothingToSay · 22 games
73%
Magnus
Magnussignature
NothingToSay · 20 games
85%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
y` · 19 games
84%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Ame · 19 games
84%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Faith_bian · 17 games
82%

Virtus.pro

Lion
Lionsignature
Save- · 20 games
70%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
1ls · 14 games
71%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
DM · 10 games
70%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Save- · 9 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
1ls · 9 games
89%
Tiny
Tinysignature
gpK~ · 9 games
78%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
1ls · 8 games
88%
Puck
Pucksignature
gpK~ · 8 games
88%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
306 picks · 178 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
294 picks · 406 bans
49%
Lina
Lina
279 picks · 568 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
259 picks · 367 bans
51%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
249 picks · 254 bans
58%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
245 picks · 416 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
242 picks · 88 bans
45%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
231 picks · 256 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 67%
Hero pool strength54% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total72% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:20
LGD Gaming 61%Virtus.pro 39%
The model gave 61% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 43:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaAme
51% · 63 games52% · 78 games
Ember SpiritgpK~
Ember Spirit
Kunkka
KunkkaNothingToSay
56% · 47 games45% · 24 games
BristlebackNightfall
Bristleback
Tidehunter
TidehunterFaith_bian
45% · 85 games54% · 48 games
EarthshakerDM
Earthshaker
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerXinQ
49% · 19 games54% · 40 games
BaneSave-
Bane
Visage
Visagey`
little data38% · 24 games
Silencer1ls
Silencer
Game 2prediction correct24:8
LGD Gaming 62%Virtus.pro 38%
The model gave 62% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 26:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaNothingToSay
48% · 103 games48% · 132 games
TinyNightfall
Tiny
Monkey King
Monkey KingAme
53% · 161 game48% · 153 games
Void SpiritgpK~
Void Spirit
Necrophos
NecrophosFaith_bian
60% · 36 games44% · 48 games
Dark SeerDM
Dark Seer
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernXinQ
56% · 94 games48% · 57 games
Io1ls
Io
Oracle
Oracley`
52% · 131 game46% · 135 games
Earth SpiritSave-
Earth Spirit
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 72%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2