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The International 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingloss 1:1
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Virtus.proloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
niu · 23 games
43%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
niu · 22 games
59%
Techies
Techiessignature
pLAnet · 20 games
75%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
pLAnet · 19 games
47%
Medusa
Medusasignature
shiro · 19 games
74%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
NothingToSay · 19 games
68%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 18 games
61%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
y` · 17 games
71%

Virtus.pro

Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
sayuw · 12 games
58%
Techies
Techies
Fng · 11 games
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Noticed · 10 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Squad1x · 10 games
40%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
sayuw · 9 games
44%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Kiritych · 7 games
43%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
sayuw · 7 games
86%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Squad1x · 7 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
262 picks · 133 bans
42%
Pangolier
Pangolier
204 picks · 426 bans
55%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
201 picks · 265 bans
51%
Sven
Sven
182 picks · 257 bans
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
174 picks · 366 bans
50%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
171 picks · 103 bans
56%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
170 picks · 318 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
167 picks · 227 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 33%
Hero pool strength53% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:31
LGD Gaming 54%Virtus.pro 46%
The model gave 54% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 40:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidshiro
50% · 79 games48% · 65 games
Templar AssassinSquad1x
Templar Assassin
Necrophos
Necrophosniu
65% · 15 games57% · 6 games
SpectreKiritych
Spectre
Kunkka
KunkkaNothingToSay
45% · 63 games49% · 80 games
DawnbreakerNoticed
Dawnbreaker
Dark Willow
Dark WillowpLAnet
51% · 112 games49% · 86 games
Vengeful SpiritFng
Vengeful Spirit
Warlock
Warlocky`
53% · 70 games50% · 102 games
Tusksayuw
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct36:34
LGD Gaming 55%Virtus.pro 45%
The model gave 55% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 44:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunashiro
51% · 16 games47% · 86 games
Templar AssassinSquad1x
Templar Assassin
Brewmaster
Brewmasterniu
54% · 45 games48% · 45 games
Spirit BreakerNoticed
Spirit Breaker
Viper
ViperNothingToSay
45% · 24 games46% · 16 games
BristlebackKiritych
Bristleback
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetpLAnet
55% · 96 games45% · 40 games
Grimstrokesayuw
Grimstroke
Elder Titan
Elder Titany`
60% · 19 games48% · 13 games
DazzleFng
Dazzle
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 56%
Accuracy by game1 of 2