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Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingloss 1:1
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Virtus.proloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Mars
Marssignature
niu · 15 games
60%
Lion
Lion
Pyw · 14 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
niu · 14 games
29%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Setsu · 12 games
58%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
niu · 12 games
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Setsu · 11 games
55%
Tusk
Tusk
Pyw · 11 games
45%
Weaver
Weaversignature
shiro · 11 games
82%

Virtus.pro

Tiny
Tinysignature
sayuw · 30 games
70%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Noticed · 24 games
46%
Batrider
Batridersignature
sayuw · 23 games
61%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Fng · 23 games
65%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 20 games
60%
Mirana
Mirana
Fng · 20 games
55%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
sayuw · 20 games
65%
Windranger
Windranger
Squad1x · 20 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
392 picks · 614 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
323 picks · 359 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
320 picks · 350 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
309 picks · 423 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
308 picks · 406 bans
54%
Weaver
Weaver
303 picks · 503 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
300 picks · 163 bans
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
298 picks · 115 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 43%
Hero pool strength53% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:24
LGD Gaming 52%Virtus.pro 48%
The model gave 52% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 44:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
Weavershiro
48% · 152 games55% · 56 games
AlchemistKiritych
Alchemist
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritEcho
50% · 204 games46% · 148 games
Templar AssassinSquad1x
Templar Assassin
Beastmaster
Beastmasterniu
50% · 124 games51% · 121 game
HoodwinkAntares
Hoodwink
Snapfire
SnapfirePyw
44% · 121 game49% · 143 games
MarsNoticed
Mars
Treant Protector
Treant Protectory`
59% · 67 games51% · 200 games
ClockwerkFng
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed18:39
LGD Gaming 51%Virtus.pro 49%
The model gave 51% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 41:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritshiro
52% · 192 games46% · 196 games
Ember SpiritSquad1x
Ember Spirit
Doom
Doomniu
54% · 135 games57% · 110 games
UrsaKiritych
Ursa
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightEcho
45% · 166 games66% · 80 games
UnderlordNoticed
Underlord
Tusk
TuskPyw
43% · 101 game49% · 308 games
RubickAntares
Rubick
Phoenix
Phoenixy`
41% · 270 games48% · 170 games
SnapfireFng
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 55%
Accuracy by game1 of 2