Intel World Open Beijing · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
LGD Gaming
Pangoliersignature
Xiao8 · 20 games
Banesignature
y` · 18 games
Elder Titansignature
y` · 15 games
Kunkkasignature
NothingToSay · 15 games
Snapfiresignature
XinQ · 13 games
Leshracsignature
Xiao8 · 12 games
Lunasignature
Ame · 12 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Ame · 12 games
Xtreme Gaming
Queen of Painsignature
Paparazi · 10 games
Marssignature
Srf · 8 games
Spirit Breakersignature
Pyw · 8 games
Ursasignature
Another · 7 games
Banesignature
Dy · 6 games
Earthshakersignature
Pyw · 6 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Paparazi · 6 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Another · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
469 picks · 338 bans
Mars
435 picks · 620 bans
Queen of Pain
365 picks · 452 bans
Weaver
361 picks · 806 bans
Snapfire
351 picks · 188 bans
Kunkka
287 picks · 479 bans
Spirit Breaker
275 picks · 419 bans
Ember Spirit
255 picks · 345 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)83% vs 63%
Hero pool strength56% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total91% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct46:44
LGD Gaming 78%Xtreme Gaming 22%
The model gave 78% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 58:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingAme
Ursalou
InvokerNothingToSay
Death ProphetPaparazi
TidehunterFaith_bian
Dark SeerELeVeN
Baney`
Spirit BreakerPyw
SnapfireXinQ
LichDy
Game 2prediction missed17:29
LGD Gaming 77%Xtreme Gaming 23%
The model gave 77% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 35:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaAme
Templar Assassinlou
Death ProphetNothingToSay
LinaPaparazi
Dark SeerFaith_bian
TidehunterELeVeN
PangolierXinQ
Nyx AssassinPyw
Baney`
DisruptorDy
Game 3prediction missed12:34
LGD Gaming 75%Xtreme Gaming 25%
The model gave 75% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 34:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinyAme
Templar Assassinlou
Void SpiritNothingToSay
Storm SpiritPaparazi
LycanFaith_bian
PhoenixELeVeN
RubickXinQ
SnapfireDy
Tidehuntery`
Nyx AssassinPyw
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 91%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3