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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Китай · BO1
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingloss 0:1
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Xtreme Gamingwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Bane
Bane
y` · 12 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
NothingToSay · 11 games
55%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Ame · 11 games
73%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
y` · 11 games
82%
Doom
Doomsignature
Faith_bian · 9 games
67%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
y` · 9 games
78%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ame · 9 games
89%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Faith_bian · 8 games
63%

Xtreme Gaming

Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
lou · 15 games
67%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Paparazi · 12 games
75%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Paparazi · 12 games
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Pyw · 11 games
100%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
ELeVeN · 10 games
70%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Pyw · 10 games
80%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Pyw · 9 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Dy · 9 games
89%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
592 picks · 448 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
406 picks · 627 bans
47%
Puck
Puck
405 picks · 861 bans
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
386 picks · 497 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
359 picks · 238 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
340 picks · 170 bans
49%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
323 picks · 599 bans
46%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knight
297 picks · 649 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 53%
Hero pool strength52% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total59% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
LGD Gaming 59%Xtreme Gaming 41%
The model gave 59% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming.
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 59%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1