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PGL Wallachia Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Thiolicor · 30 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
KJ · 22 games
55%
Bane
Baneoften banned
KJ · 19 games
58%
Necrophos
Necrophosoften banned
Yuma · 16 games
50%
Puck
Pucksignature
TaiLung · 13 games
69%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Wisper · 12 games
58%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Wisper · 12 games
58%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Wisper · 12 games
58%

Xtreme Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
fy · 31 game
58%
Rubick
Rubick
fy · 19 games
42%
Pangolier
Pangolier
NothingToSay · 18 games
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
xNova · 18 games
33%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
NothingToSay · 15 games
67%
Lich
Lichsignature
xNova · 14 games
64%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ame · 13 games
54%
Puck
Puckoften banned
NothingToSay · 12 games
17%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
485 picks · 290 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
348 picks · 146 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
342 picks · 157 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
322 picks · 464 bans
59%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
295 picks · 298 bans
55%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
292 picks · 454 bans
53%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
275 picks · 258 bans
59%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
267 picks · 197 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 40%
Hero pool strength55% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total52% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:31
LGD Gaming 51%Xtreme Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 45:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerSumaiL
45% · 12 games59% · 24 games
Phantom LancerAme
Phantom Lancer
Lifestealer
LifestealerWits
48% · 100 games54% · 264 games
Ember SpiritXm
Ember Spirit
Doom
DoomDavai
49% · 164 games45% · 78 games
Brewmasterzeal
Brewmaster
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterThiolicor
49% · 33 games51% · 20 games
Crystal MaidenBoBoKa
Crystal Maiden
Jakiro
JakiroSneyking
45% · 238 games55% · 161 game
RubickXinQ
Rubick
Game 2prediction missed14:42
LGD Gaming 51%Xtreme Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 40:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetWits
52% · 156 games48% · 139 games
KezAme
Kez
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSumaiL
46% · 219 games49% · 158 games
Doomzeal
Doom
Dark Seer
Dark SeerDavai
48% · 144 games59% · 267 games
Ember SpiritXm
Ember Spirit
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernSneyking
49% · 202 games45% · 185 games
WindrangerXinQ
Windranger
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterThiolicor
56% · 57 games49% · 29 games
Crystal MaidenBoBoKa
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 52%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2