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BLAST Slam VIII · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Thiolicor · 31 game
65%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
KJ · 22 games
55%
Bane
Baneoften banned
KJ · 21 game
57%
Necrophos
Necrophosoften banned
Yuma · 17 games
53%
Windranger
Windranger
Thiolicor · 17 games
53%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Wisper · 15 games
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Thiolicor · 15 games
40%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Thiolicor · 14 games
57%

Xtreme Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
fy · 30 games
53%
Rubick
Rubick
fy · 20 games
40%
Pangolier
Pangolier
NothingToSay · 18 games
44%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 15 games
73%
Doom
Doomsignature
zeal · 14 games
71%
Lich
Lichsignature
xNova · 14 games
64%
Phoenix
Phoenix
xNova · 14 games
29%
Mirana
Miranasignature
xNova · 13 games
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
504 picks · 299 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
405 picks · 168 bans
52%
Mirana
Mirana
378 picks · 167 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
329 picks · 494 bans
59%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
316 picks · 284 bans
59%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
313 picks · 310 bans
54%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
290 picks · 492 bans
53%
Undying
Undying
278 picks · 353 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 44%
Hero pool strength51% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total60% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:13
LGD Gaming 57%Xtreme Gaming 43%
The model gave 57% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 40:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidWits
56% · 97 games44% · 102 games
LinaAme
Lina
Necrophos
NecrophosDavai
50% · 134 games46% · 188 games
Timbersawzeal
Timbersaw
Pangolier
PangolierSumaiL
51% · 372 games49% · 340 games
Ember SpiritMoon
Ember Spirit
Rubick
RubickThiolicor
47% · 292 games51% · 281 game
WindrangerXinQ
Windranger
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernSneyking
57% · 245 games49% · 229 games
BaneBoBoKa
Bane
Game 2prediction missed9:32
LGD Gaming 55%Xtreme Gaming 45%
The model gave 55% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 33:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyWits
47% · 245 games50% · 214 games
Monkey KingAme
Monkey King
Pangolier
PangolierSumaiL
51% · 171 game48% · 153 games
Dark Seerzeal
Dark Seer
Necrophos
NecrophosDavai
44% · 72 games63% · 258 games
Keeper of the LightMoon
Keeper of the Light
Hoodwink
HoodwinkThiolicor
49% · 379 games46% · 191 game
EnchantressBoBoKa
Enchantress
Dazzle
DazzleSneyking
46% · 45 games55% · 96 games
Nyx AssassinXinQ
Nyx Assassin
Game 3prediction correct36:19
LGD Gaming 55%Xtreme Gaming 45%
The model gave 55% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 44:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinWits
42% · 157 games56% · 201 game
Nature's ProphetAme
Nature's Prophet
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritSumaiL
50% · 359 games53% · 246 games
Timbersawzeal
Timbersaw
Axe
AxeDavai
48% · 229 games44% · 32 games
Death ProphetMoon
Death Prophet
Mirana
MiranaSneyking
53% · 130 games49% · 205 games
RubickXinQ
Rubick
Dark Willow
Dark WillowThiolicor
47% · 198 games53% · 389 games
JakiroBoBoKa
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 60%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3