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PGL Wallachia Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Yakult Brothersloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Thiolicor · 29 games
66%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
KJ · 22 games
55%
Bane
Banesignature
KJ · 18 games
61%
Necrophos
Necrophosoften banned
Yuma · 15 games
53%
Puck
Pucksignature
TaiLung · 13 games
69%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Wisper · 12 games
58%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Wisper · 12 games
58%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Wisper · 12 games
58%

Yakult Brothers

Lion
Lionsignature
Kaka · 16 games
69%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Kaka · 15 games
47%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Moon · 15 games
40%
Tiny
Tinysignature
lou · 15 games
73%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Emo · 13 games
62%
Phoenix
Phoenix
天命 · 12 games
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Moon · 9 games
78%
Mirana
Miranasignature
天命 · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
468 picks · 287 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
321 picks · 129 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
317 picks · 139 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
306 picks · 451 bans
59%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
286 picks · 291 bans
55%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
286 picks · 421 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
271 picks · 213 bans
50%
Undying
Undying
265 picks · 365 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 69%
Hero pool strength51% Yakult Brothers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:38
LGD Gaming 55%Yakult Brothers 45%
The model gave 55% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 45:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSumaiL
45% · 114 games50% · 302 games
Windrangerlou
Windranger
Tiny
TinyWits
51% · 377 games48% · 255 games
BeastmasterBEYOND
Beastmaster
Necrophos
NecrophosDavai
49% · 76 games47% · 13 games
Outworld DestroyerEmo
Outworld Destroyer
Dark Willow
Dark WillowThiolicor
49% · 188 games61% · 144 games
Shadow ShamanKaka
Shadow Shaman
Bane
BaneSneyking
47% · 134 games51% · 175 games
Mirana天命
Mirana
Game 2prediction correct40:15
LGD Gaming 54%Yakult Brothers 46%
The model gave 54% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 39:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidWits
52% · 120 games51% · 67 games
Svenlou
Sven
Axe
AxeDavai
48% · 273 games47% · 125 games
DawnbreakerBEYOND
Dawnbreaker
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritSumaiL
48% · 172 games57% · 322 games
Ember SpiritEmo
Ember Spirit
Dark Willow
Dark WillowThiolicor
42% · 310 games61% · 100 games
LionKaka
Lion
Enchantress
EnchantressSneyking
45% · 209 games50% · 470 games
Hoodwink天命
Hoodwink
Game 3prediction correct31:13
LGD Gaming 56%Yakult Brothers 44%
The model gave 56% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 34:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidWits
55% · 77 games47% · 133 games
Lifestealerlou
Lifestealer
Void Spirit
Void SpiritSumaiL
42% · 170 games41% · 146 games
BristlebackBEYOND
Bristleback
Largo
LargoDavai
51% · 194 games57% · 288 games
Ember SpiritEmo
Ember Spirit
Rubick
RubickThiolicor
51% · 242 games53% · 178 games
Keeper of the LightKaka
Keeper of the Light
Mirana
MiranaSneyking
50% · 122 games51% · 60 games
Witch Doctor天命
Witch Doctor
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 64%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3