BTS Pro Series Season 11. ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Lilgunloss 1:1series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Army Geniusesloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Lilgun
No games played over 6 months.
Army Geniuses
Pangoliersignature
woMy · 9 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Azur4 · 9 games
Gyrocopter
Varizh · 8 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Azur4 · 7 games
Grimstroke
Varizh · 7 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
db- · 7 games
Razoroften banned
woMy · 6 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Azur4 · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
459 picks · 283 bans
Mars
447 picks · 606 bans
Tiny
409 picks · 476 bans
Sand King
369 picks · 490 bans
Death Prophet
362 picks · 777 bans
Ember Spirit
342 picks · 516 bans
Storm Spirit
319 picks · 491 bans
Pangolier
317 picks · 462 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 56%
Hero pool strength51% Lilgun
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total56% Army Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:10
Lilgun 44%Army Geniuses 56%
The model gave 56% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 35:46.
Game 2prediction correct38:21
Lilgun 44%Army Geniuses 56%
The model gave 56% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 43:01.
Model check result
Model favoriteArmy Geniuses · 56%
Accuracy by game2 of 2