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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Lilgunwin 2:1
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Army Geniusesloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Lilgun

No games played over 6 months.

Army Geniuses

Tiny
Tiny
NARMAN · 12 games
58%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Varizh · 11 games
45%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
woMy · 9 games
33%
Mars
Marssignature
woMy · 8 games
63%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Azur4 · 8 games
63%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
NARMAN · 7 games
57%
Razor
Razoroften banned
db- · 7 games
43%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
woMy · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
536 picks · 454 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
449 picks · 681 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
424 picks · 543 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
394 picks · 282 bans
59%
Pangolier
Pangolier
354 picks · 590 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
344 picks · 800 bans
57%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
339 picks · 547 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
337 picks · 625 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% Army Geniuses
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total51% Lilgun
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:25
Lilgun 51%Army Geniuses 49%
The model gave 51% on Lilgun — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 35:41.
Game 2prediction missed37:21
Lilgun 51%Army Geniuses 49%
The model gave 51% on Lilgun — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 41:06.
Game 3prediction correct
Lilgun 51%Army Geniuses 49%
The model gave 51% on Lilgun — the game was taken by Lilgun.
Model check result
Model favoriteLilgun · 51%
Series resultLilgun 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3