The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Lilgunloss 1:2series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Army Geniuseswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Lilgun
No games played over 6 months.
Army Geniuses
Tiny
NARMAN · 16 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
Varizh · 10 games
Timbersawoften banned
woMy · 8 games
Pangoliersignature
woMy · 7 games
Razoroften banned
woMy · 7 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Azur4 · 7 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Azur4 · 6 games
Marsoften banned
woMy · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
709 picks · 558 bans
Dawnbreaker
500 picks · 655 bans
Marci
497 picks · 781 bans
Puck
483 picks · 1007 bans
Winter Wyvern
368 picks · 424 bans
Zeus
326 picks · 397 bans
Snapfire
316 picks · 156 bans
Razor
301 picks · 569 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 47%
Hero pool strength52% Army Geniuses
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total57% Army Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:27
Lilgun 43%Army Geniuses 57%
The model gave 57% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 40:44.
Game 2prediction correct34:32
Lilgun 43%Army Geniuses 57%
The model gave 57% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 44:32.
Game 3prediction correct20:45
Lilgun 43%Army Geniuses 57%
The model gave 57% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 46:42.
Model check result
Model favoriteArmy Geniuses · 57%
Series resultArmy Geniuses 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3