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OB.Moon Asian Arena · BO3
result vs prediction
Lilgunloss 1:2
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Execrationwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Lilgun

No games played over 6 months.

Execration

Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Bob · 19 games
58%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Bob · 17 games
59%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
RR · 15 games
67%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
RR · 14 games
71%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Yowe · 13 games
54%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Bob · 12 games
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
RR · 12 games
58%
Doom
Doomsignature
Force · 11 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
351 picks · 179 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
287 picks · 103 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
270 picks · 416 bans
49%
Lina
Lina
265 picks · 531 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
264 picks · 363 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
238 picks · 337 bans
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
233 picks · 241 bans
58%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
219 picks · 471 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 37%
Hero pool strength56% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total68% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:33
Lilgun 32%Execration 68%
The model gave 68% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 23:43.
Game 2prediction correct37:11
Lilgun 32%Execration 68%
The model gave 68% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 26:21.
Game 3prediction correct23:38
Lilgun 32%Execration 68%
The model gave 68% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 34:02.
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 68%
Series resultExecration 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3