BTS Pro Series Season 10. ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Lilgunwin 2:0series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Execrationloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Lilgun
No games played over 6 months.
Execration
Linaoften banned
Bob · 12 games
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 12 games
Batridersignature
Bob · 9 games
Ogre Magi
RR · 9 games
Tiny
Tino- · 9 games
Bane
RR · 8 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Tino- · 8 games
Pangolieroften banned
RR · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
539 picks · 379 bans
Mars
450 picks · 653 bans
Queen of Pain
436 picks · 533 bans
Weaver
426 picks · 843 bans
Snapfire
347 picks · 177 bans
Spirit Breaker
336 picks · 534 bans
Kunkka
333 picks · 536 bans
Wraith King
273 picks · 309 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 38%
Hero pool strength51% Lilgun
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total51% Lilgun
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:37
Lilgun 51%Execration 49%
The model gave 51% on Lilgun — the game was taken by Execration in 32:18.
Game 2prediction missed24:41
Lilgun 51%Execration 49%
The model gave 51% on Lilgun — the game was taken by Execration in 40:19.
Model check result
Model favoriteLilgun · 51%
Series resultLilgun 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2