BTS Pro Series Season 12: ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Lilgunwin 2:0series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Execrationloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Lilgun
No games played over 6 months.
Execration
Dragon Knightsignature
Tino- · 17 games
Miranasignature
Shanks · 15 games
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 13 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Bob · 12 games
Death Prophetoften banned
RR · 11 games
Kunkkasignature
Palos · 9 games
Tinysignature
Palos · 9 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
658 picks · 518 bans
Marci
476 picks · 707 bans
Dawnbreaker
441 picks · 612 bans
Puck
435 picks · 895 bans
Winter Wyvern
343 picks · 419 bans
Zeus
296 picks · 390 bans
Death Prophet
280 picks · 469 bans
Razor
276 picks · 498 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 42%
Hero pool strength54% Execration
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total51% Lilgun
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:42
Lilgun 51%Execration 49%
The model gave 51% on Lilgun — the game was taken by Execration in 38:36.
Game 2prediction missed16:35
Lilgun 51%Execration 49%
The model gave 51% on Lilgun — the game was taken by Execration in 44:14.
Model check result
Model favoriteLilgun · 51%
Series resultLilgun 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2