Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Lilgunwin 2:0series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Made in Philippinesloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Lilgun
No games played over 6 months.
Made in Philippines
Kunkkaoften banned
JG · 2 games
Marsoften banned
Rupido · 2 games
Shadow Shaman
Teehee · 2 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Ken · 2 games
Bane
Teehee · 1 game
Beastmasteroften banned
Rupido · 1 game
Brewmasteroften banned
Rupido · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
Teehee · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
466 picks · 642 bans
Tiny
454 picks · 436 bans
Bane
446 picks · 272 bans
Sand King
409 picks · 560 bans
Dragon Knight
400 picks · 479 bans
Storm Spirit
398 picks · 644 bans
Pangolier
360 picks · 558 bans
Grimstroke
333 picks · 293 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 56%
Hero pool strength56% Lilgun
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Lilgun
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:29
Lilgun 61%Made in Philippines 39%
The model gave 61% on Lilgun — the game was taken by Made in Philippines in 27:31.
Game 2prediction missed33:25
Lilgun 61%Made in Philippines 39%
The model gave 61% on Lilgun — the game was taken by Made in Philippines in 40:34.
Model check result
Model favoriteLilgun · 61%
Series resultLilgun 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2