Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Lilgunwin 2:1series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Novaloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Lilgun
No games played over 6 months.
Nova
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
474 picks · 280 bans
Mars
392 picks · 549 bans
Queen of Pain
366 picks · 510 bans
Weaver
359 picks · 477 bans
Death Prophet
308 picks · 502 bans
Kunkka
290 picks · 525 bans
Ember Spirit
271 picks · 355 bans
Grimstroke
270 picks · 190 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Lilgun
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% Lilgun
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:26
Lilgun 75%Nova 25%
The model gave 75% on Lilgun — the game was taken by Nova in 31:18.
Game 2prediction missed12:32
Lilgun 75%Nova 25%
The model gave 75% on Lilgun — the game was taken by Nova in 41:07.
Game 3prediction missed17:33
Lilgun 75%Nova 25%
The model gave 75% on Lilgun — the game was taken by Nova in 38:10.
Model check result
Model favoriteLilgun · 75%
Series resultLilgun 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3