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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — ЮВА 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Lilgunloss 1:2
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Omega Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Lilgun

No games played over 6 months.

Omega Esports

Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Mac · 14 games
64%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
cml · 11 games
73%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Mac · 8 games
63%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Tino- · 8 games
75%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Sam_H · 7 games
57%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Mac · 7 games
43%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Sam_H · 6 games
83%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mac · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
433 picks · 944 bans
53%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
407 picks · 581 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
360 picks · 666 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
333 picks · 584 bans
53%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
306 picks · 273 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
267 picks · 179 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
260 picks · 378 bans
61%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
252 picks · 219 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 65%
Hero pool strength56% Omega Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total68% Omega Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:7
Lilgun 32%Omega Esports 68%
The model gave 68% on Omega Esports — the game was taken by Omega Esports in 27:58.
Game 2prediction correct15:36
Lilgun 32%Omega Esports 68%
The model gave 68% on Omega Esports — the game was taken by Omega Esports in 34:17.
Game 3prediction correct44:20
Lilgun 32%Omega Esports 68%
The model gave 68% on Omega Esports — the game was taken by Omega Esports in 37:44.
Model check result
Model favoriteOmega Esports · 68%
Series resultOmega Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3