Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Lilgunloss 1:2series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Ragdollwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Lilgun
No games played over 6 months.
Ragdoll
Queen of Painsignature
Ahjit · 6 games
Terrorbladesignature
vtFαded · 6 games
Lion
Yif · 5 games
Marsoften banned
Gy · 5 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
vtFαded · 4 games
Weaveroften banned
Yif · 4 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Azrael · 3 games
Ogre Magi
Azrael · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
389 picks · 282 bans
Mars
374 picks · 546 bans
Snapfire
310 picks · 180 bans
Weaver
300 picks · 711 bans
Queen of Pain
279 picks · 344 bans
Kunkka
233 picks · 397 bans
Ember Spirit
229 picks · 308 bans
Disruptor
228 picks · 157 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 82%
Hero pool strength58% Ragdoll
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Ragdoll
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:23
Lilgun 23%Ragdoll 77%
The model gave 77% on Ragdoll — the game was taken by Ragdoll in 22:38.
Game 2prediction correct8:20
Lilgun 23%Ragdoll 77%
The model gave 77% on Ragdoll — the game was taken by Ragdoll in 26:42.
Game 3prediction correct21:36
Lilgun 23%Ragdoll 77%
The model gave 77% on Ragdoll — the game was taken by Ragdoll in 39:09.
Model check result
Model favoriteRagdoll · 77%
Series resultRagdoll 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3