BTS Pro Series Season 10. ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Lilgunwin 2:1series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:1
TOTeam Orcaloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Lilgun
No games played over 6 months.
Team Orca
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
540 picks · 363 bans
Queen of Pain
470 picks · 570 bans
Mars
430 picks · 598 bans
Weaver
418 picks · 706 bans
Kunkka
353 picks · 536 bans
Spirit Breaker
341 picks · 570 bans
Snapfire
325 picks · 161 bans
Wraith King
276 picks · 360 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 38%
Hero pool strength50% Lilgun
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Team Orca
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:33
Lilgun 39%Team Orca 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Orca — the game was taken by Team Orca in 34:09.
Game 2prediction correct11:38
Lilgun 39%Team Orca 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Orca — the game was taken by Team Orca in 36:37.
Game 3prediction correct10:21
Lilgun 39%Team Orca 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Orca — the game was taken by Team Orca in 26:17.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Orca · 61%
Series resultLilgun 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3