Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Китай. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Limitwin 2:0series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
iG Vitalityloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Limit
Tiny
Yds · 4 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Victoria · 4 games
Tusk
Echo · 4 games
Doomoften banned
Srf · 3 games
Hoodwink
Yds · 3 games
Linaoften banned
Xm · 3 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Xm · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Srf · 2 games
iG Vitality
Shadow Fiendoften banned
ukiyo · 4 games
Clockwerk
Sj · 3 games
Lone Druidoften banned
ukiyo · 2 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
ukiyo · 2 games
Undyingoften banned
Sj · 2 games
Winter Wyvernoften banned
Sj · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Summer · 1 game
Drow Rangeroften banned
ukiyo · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
355 picks · 326 bans
Tusk
299 picks · 288 bans
Marci
273 picks · 518 bans
Undying
251 picks · 465 bans
Pangolier
244 picks · 543 bans
Primal Beast
229 picks · 585 bans
Shadow Fiend
219 picks · 336 bans
Snapfire
211 picks · 112 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 63%
Hero pool strength56% Limit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Limit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:5
Limit 54%iG Vitality 46%
The model gave 54% on Limit — the game was taken by Limit in 28:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendXm
LycanSummer
KunkkaEcho
Drow Rangerukiyo
BrewmasterSrf
UndyingSj
TuskYds
Treant ProtectorVictoria
Game 2prediction correct32:18
Limit 54%iG Vitality 46%
The model gave 54% on Limit — the game was taken by Limit in 41:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaXm
Nature's ProphetSummer
ZeusEcho
Shadow Fiendukiyo
Death ProphetSrf
Winter WyvernSj
LichVictoria
TuskYds
Model check result
Model favoriteLimit · 55%
Series resultLimit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2