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The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Limitloss 0:1
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:1
iG Vitalitywin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Limit

Tusk
Tusk
Yds · 7 games
43%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Srf · 6 games
33%
Rubick
Rubick
cxk · 6 games
0%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
出省 · 5 games
40%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Chosenone · 4 games
0%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Kry · 4 games
0%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
冷鸟 · 3 games
0%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
出省 · 3 games
0%

iG Vitality

Jakiro
Jakiro
Sj · 11 games
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ash · 10 games
50%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
Hara · 10 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Tzy · 9 games
78%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
ukiyo · 9 games
33%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Ponyo · 9 games
33%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 9 games
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Drink · 8 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
608 picks · 646 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
470 picks · 263 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
425 picks · 858 bans
52%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
384 picks · 390 bans
49%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
374 picks · 759 bans
48%
Doom
Doom
354 picks · 806 bans
54%
Pugna
Pugna
346 picks · 398 bans
54%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
346 picks · 863 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)18% vs 43%
Hero pool strength60% iG Vitality
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total56% iG Vitality
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct3:27
Limit 44%iG Vitality 56%
The model gave 56% on iG Vitality — the game was taken by iG Vitality in 17:26.
Model check result
Model favoriteiG Vitality · 56%
Series resultiG Vitality 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1