Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Limitloss 0:2series probability
16%84%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Zerowin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Limit
Tusk
Yds · 17 games
Death Prophetsignature
Srf · 10 games
Silenceroften banned
Victoria · 9 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Srf · 8 games
Rubick
cxk · 8 games
Tiny
Yds · 7 games
Lichsignature
Victoria · 6 games
Treant Protectorsignature
Victoria · 6 games
Team Zero
Pangolieroften banned
7e · 5 games
Spirit Breakeroften banned
zzq · 5 games
Enchantressoften banned
zzq · 4 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
iceice · 3 games
Morphlingoften banned
Cty · 3 games
Rubick
iceice · 3 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Cty · 3 games
Windrangeroften banned
Cty · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
741 picks · 563 bans
Disruptor
606 picks · 525 bans
Beastmaster
560 picks · 1275 bans
Doom
557 picks · 1096 bans
Techies
509 picks · 570 bans
Pangolier
474 picks · 951 bans
Ember Spirit
463 picks · 1109 bans
Enchantress
461 picks · 648 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)15% vs 75%
Hero pool strength59% Team Zero
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% Team Zero
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:31
Limit 16%Team Zero 84%
The model gave 84% on Team Zero — the game was taken by Team Zero in 26:48.
Game 2prediction correct7:31
Limit 16%Team Zero 84%
The model gave 84% on Team Zero — the game was taken by Team Zero in 25:59.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Zero · 84%
Series resultTeam Zero 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2