European Pro League Season 35 · BO3
result vs prediction
LiXO eSportsloss 0:2series probability
12%88%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Lynxwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
LiXO eSports
Tusk
aguwa · 3 games
Enigmaoften banned
zenica · 2 games
Invokeroften banned
Rayx · 2 games
Jakirooften banned
Garbat1y · 2 games
Kezoften banned
eva · 2 games
Bristleback
zenica · 1 game
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
zenica · 1 game
Clinkzoften banned
eva · 1 game
Team Lynx
Centaur Warrunnersignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 26 games
Primal Beastsignature
mellojul · 21 game
Gyrocoptersignature
7jesu · 20 games
Underlordsignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 18 games
Sand King
mellojul · 17 games
Ringmastersignature
QBFY · 15 games
Ursasignature
7jesu · 14 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
631 picks · 814 bans
Tiny
559 picks · 577 bans
Tusk
453 picks · 400 bans
Warlock
447 picks · 296 bans
Shadow Demon
403 picks · 1048 bans
Ember Spirit
385 picks · 681 bans
Mars
381 picks · 601 bans
Shadow Fiend
361 picks · 962 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 63%
Hero pool strength53% Team Lynx
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total88% Team Lynx
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:28
LiXO eSports 26%Team Lynx 74%
The model gave 74% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 28:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassineva
Keeper of the Lightmellojul
Queen of PainRayx
Slark7jesu
Bristlebackzenica
LargoVladikTheHtiviy
Hoodwinkaguwa
Dark WillowQBFY
DisruptorGarbat1y
Warlockkreker
Game 2prediction correct11:28
LiXO eSports 25%Team Lynx 75%
The model gave 75% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 25:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladeeva
Slark7jesu
Storm SpiritRayx
BristlebackVladikTheHtiviy
Underlordzenica
Ember Spiritmellojul
Marciaguwa
Pugnakreker
JakiroGarbat1y
Shadow DemonQBFY
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Lynx · 88%
Series resultTeam Lynx 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2