ESL One Malaysia 2022. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs predictionLBLucky Birdwin 1:0
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 1:0
5ManMidasloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Lucky Bird
Pucksignature
BlackSoul · 7 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Rises · 4 games
Tiny
FrancisLee · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
BlackSoul · 3 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Rises · 3 games
Queen of Painoften banned
BlackSoul · 3 games
Tusk
FrancisLee · 3 games
Weaveroften banned
Rises · 3 games
5ManMidas
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
584 picks · 447 bans
Puck
413 picks · 890 bans
Mars
379 picks · 590 bans
Dragon Knight
360 picks · 475 bans
Snapfire
349 picks · 179 bans
Bane
324 picks · 216 bans
Dawnbreaker
307 picks · 364 bans
Ember Spirit
299 picks · 576 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)87% vs 47%
Hero pool strength60% Lucky Bird
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total68% Lucky Bird
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Lucky Bird 68%5ManMidas 32%
The model gave 68% on Lucky Bird — the game was taken by Lucky Bird.
Model check result
Model favoriteLucky Bird · 68%
Series resultLucky Bird 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1