Lucky Bird vs Duck Tales — prediction DPC2S—СА 3 · Dota 2

Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO3

result vs prediction

LBLucky Birdwin 2:0

series probability

35%65%

probability at match start · final 2:0

DTDuck Talesloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Lucky Bird

No games played over 6 months.

Duck Tales

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Mars

467 picks · 638 bans

48%

Tiny

461 picks · 499 bans

50%

Bane

440 picks · 269 bans

55%

Sand King

421 picks · 550 bans

53%

Pangolier

353 picks · 532 bans

52%

Storm Spirit

353 picks · 594 bans

55%

Death Prophet

352 picks · 814 bans

54%

Dragon Knight

352 picks · 403 bans

52%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%

Hero pool strength50% Lucky Bird

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total65% Duck Tales

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed39:24

Lucky Bird 43%Duck Tales 57%

The model gave 57% on Duck Tales — the game was taken by Lucky Bird in 43:50.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo