Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs predictionLBLucky Birdwin 2:0
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Stratyk Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Lucky Bird
Bloodseekeroften banned
Rises · 1 game
Queen of Painoften banned
BlackSoul · 1 game
Skywrath Mage
FrancisLee · 1 game
Snapfire
FrancisLee · 1 game
Storm Spiritoften banned
BlackSoul · 1 game
Templar Assassinoften banned
Rises · 1 game
Stratyk Gaming
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Adrx · 3 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
Adrx · 2 games
Lifestealeroften banned
Adrx · 2 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Adrx · 2 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
Adrx · 1 game
Huskaroften banned
Adrx · 1 game
Razoroften banned
Adrx · 1 game
Skywrath Mage
Ezekiel · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
468 picks · 646 bans
Tiny
468 picks · 504 bans
Bane
441 picks · 270 bans
Sand King
421 picks · 554 bans
Storm Spirit
355 picks · 601 bans
Dragon Knight
353 picks · 411 bans
Death Prophet
352 picks · 816 bans
Pangolier
352 picks · 536 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Lucky Bird
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Stratyk Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteStratyk Gaming · 52%
Series resultLucky Bird 2:0
Series predictionmissed