BetBoom Dacha · BO3
result vs prediction
Luna Galaxyloss 1:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Alliancewin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Luna Galaxy
Rubicksignature
Thiolicor · 17 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Adzantick · 13 games
Miranasignature
Xakoda · 11 games
Timbersawoften banned
Davai · 11 games
Disruptoroften banned
Xakoda · 10 games
Void Spiritsignature
Adzantick · 9 games
Slarkoften banned
Yuma · 8 games
Underlordsignature
Davai · 8 games
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
623 picks · 676 bans
Rubick
481 picks · 288 bans
Batrider
431 picks · 892 bans
Ember Spirit
384 picks · 807 bans
Spirit Breaker
384 picks · 393 bans
Doom
381 picks · 859 bans
Beastmaster
353 picks · 921 bans
Pugna
353 picks · 416 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 40%
Hero pool strength54% Luna Galaxy
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total60% Alliance
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:7
Luna Galaxy 40%Alliance 60%
The model gave 60% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 37:05.
Game 2prediction missed26:20
Luna Galaxy 40%Alliance 60%
The model gave 60% on Alliance — the game was taken by Luna Galaxy in 43:21.
Game 3prediction correct12:28
Luna Galaxy 40%Alliance 60%
The model gave 60% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 37:37.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance · 60%
Series resultAlliance 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3