Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Luna Galaxywin 2:0series probability
14%86%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Entityloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Luna Galaxy
Rubicksignature
Thiolicor · 18 games
Disruptor
Xakoda · 11 games
Timbersawoften banned
Davai · 11 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Adzantick · 10 games
Miranasignature
Thiolicor · 10 games
Tinyoften banned
Thiolicor · 10 games
Clockwerksignature
Thiolicor · 9 games
Death Prophetsignature
Davai · 8 games
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
697 picks · 599 bans
Disruptor
570 picks · 495 bans
Beastmaster
464 picks · 1133 bans
Doom
461 picks · 842 bans
Ember Spirit
413 picks · 1058 bans
Enchantress
392 picks · 555 bans
Pangolier
390 picks · 847 bans
Mirana
389 picks · 214 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 31%
Hero pool strength56% Luna Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:13
Luna Galaxy 14%Entity 86%
The model gave 86% on Entity — the game was taken by Luna Galaxy in 42:02.
Game 2prediction missed37:27
Luna Galaxy 14%Entity 86%
The model gave 86% on Entity — the game was taken by Luna Galaxy in 54:51.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 86%
Series resultLuna Galaxy 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2