Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #3 · BO5
result vs prediction
Luna Galaxywin 3:1series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 3:1
Team Ticklesloss 1:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Luna Galaxy
Ember Spiritoften banned
Adzantick · 14 games
Rubicksignature
Thiolicor · 14 games
Timbersawoften banned
Davai · 13 games
Miranasignature
Thiolicor · 12 games
Disruptor
Xakoda · 11 games
Underlordoften banned
Davai · 11 games
Keeper of the Light
Thiolicor · 10 games
Medusaoften banned
Shad · 9 games
Team Tickles
Pangolieroften banned
Adzantick · 3 games
Clockwerk
Dukalis · 2 games
Dark Seeroften banned
BOOM · 2 games
Earthshakeroften banned
NARMAN · 2 games
Invokeroften banned
Adzantick · 2 games
Svenoften banned
Shad · 2 games
Tidehunteroften banned
BOOM · 2 games
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
Dukalis · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
385 picks · 187 bans
Ember Spirit
301 picks · 430 bans
Undying
254 picks · 435 bans
Techies
242 picks · 194 bans
Batrider
237 picks · 385 bans
Morphling
237 picks · 431 bans
Storm Spirit
234 picks · 393 bans
Pangolier
225 picks · 435 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 71%
Hero pool strength58% Team Tickles
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Luna Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:30
Luna Galaxy 51%Team Tickles 49%
The model gave 51% on Luna Galaxy — the game was taken by Team Tickles in 43:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinYuma
Naga SirenShad
Ember SpiritStojkov
InvokerAdzantick
GyrocopterDavai
TidehunterBOOM
Nature's ProphetKidaro
EarthshakerNARMAN
ClockwerkThiolicor
Ancient ApparitionDukalis
Game 2prediction missed47:12
Luna Galaxy 49%Team Tickles 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Luna Galaxy in 31:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinStojkov
Phantom AssassinShad
UrsaYuma
PuckAdzantick
PangolierDavai
TidehunterBOOM
WarlockKidaro
DawnbreakerNARMAN
Dark WillowThiolicor
Vengeful SpiritDukalis
Game 3prediction correct41:13
Luna Galaxy 53%Team Tickles 47%
The model gave 53% on Luna Galaxy — the game was taken by Luna Galaxy in 35:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenYuma
MedusaShad
PuckStojkov
BrewmasterBOOM
SlarkDavai
Earth SpiritAdzantick
Nature's ProphetKidaro
Vengeful SpiritNARMAN
Skywrath MageThiolicor
WarlockDukalis
Game 4prediction missed27:31
Luna Galaxy 50%Team Tickles 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Luna Galaxy in 53:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterYuma
SlarkShad
Queen of PainStojkov
Dark SeerBOOM
UnderlordDavai
Primal BeastAdzantick
ClockwerkThiolicor
Skywrath MageNARMAN
WarlockKidaro
Ancient ApparitionDukalis
Model check result
Model favoriteLuna Galaxy · 51%
Series resultLuna Galaxy 3:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 4