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ESL One Bangkok 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
M80loss 1:1
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Gaozuloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

M80

Snapfire
Snapfire
Elmisho · 24 games
25%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Elmisho · 21 game
57%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Elmisho · 20 games
60%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Elmisho · 16 games
63%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
MoOz · 15 games
47%
Jakiro
Jakiro
MoOz · 15 games
33%
Phoenix
Phoenix
MoOz · 15 games
27%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
Vitaly · 14 games
43%

Gaozu

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Paparazi · 8 games
63%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Dy · 5 games
80%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
JT- · 4 games
75%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Paparazi · 4 games
50%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Ame · 3 games
100%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
XinQ · 3 games
67%
Mars
Marsoften banned
JT- · 3 games
67%
Muerta
Muerta
XinQ · 3 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
487 picks · 674 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
418 picks · 493 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
363 picks · 534 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
355 picks · 184 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
334 picks · 445 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
310 picks · 516 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
307 picks · 333 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
307 picks · 595 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 64%
Hero pool strength61% Gaozu
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Gaozu
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:16
M80 41%Gaozu 59%
The model gave 59% on Gaozu — the game was taken by M80 in 45:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinpayk
49% · 113 games48% · 81 game
MedusaAme
Medusa
Bristleback
BristlebackILICH-
52% · 94 games47% · 210 games
TimbersawJT-
Timbersaw
Enchantress
EnchantressMoOz
47% · 216 games48% · 129 games
InvokerPaparazi
Invoker
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonElmisho
56% · 157 games58% · 33 games
Shadow ShamanXinQ
Shadow Shaman
49% · 127 games
PugnaDy
Pugna
Game 2prediction correct26:41
M80 42%Gaozu 58%
The model gave 58% on Gaozu — the game was taken by Gaozu in 41:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterpayk
49% · 233 games48% · 172 games
Templar AssassinAme
Templar Assassin
Doom
DoomILICH-
47% · 210 games40% · 128 games
LinaPaparazi
Lina
Lion
LionElmisho
54% · 210 games49% · 75 games
UnderlordJT-
Underlord
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenMoOz
54% · 234 games52% · 407 games
BatriderXinQ
Batrider
55% · 105 games
Elder TitanDy
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteGaozu · 67%
Accuracy by game1 of 2