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PGL Wallachia Season 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
M80win 2:0
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Hokoriloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

M80

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Elmisho · 27 games
59%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
MoOz · 25 games
60%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
MoOz · 21 game
62%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Elmisho · 17 games
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
K1 · 17 games
65%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
MoOz · 17 games
59%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Elmisho · 16 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
DarkMago · 16 games
75%

Hokori

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Genek · 10 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Gardick · 9 games
44%
Muerta
Muerta
Genek · 9 games
33%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Lumière · 7 games
43%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
Gardick · 7 games
57%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Lumière · 6 games
17%
Medusa
Medusasignature
Lumière · 6 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Vitaly · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
507 picks · 688 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
480 picks · 405 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
472 picks · 596 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
471 picks · 567 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
454 picks · 540 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
435 picks · 799 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
425 picks · 949 bans
58%
Lion
Lion
398 picks · 233 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 37%
Hero pool strength56% M80
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total78% M80
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:16
M80 68%Hokori 32%
The model gave 68% on M80 — the game was taken by M80 in 33:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightK1
50% · 124 games48% · 15 games
AbaddonCostabile
Abaddon
Pangolier
PangolierDarkMago
56% · 150 games53% · 308 games
BeastmasterFCR
Beastmaster
Mars
MarsILICH-
44% · 66 games42% · 151 game
ZeusGardick
Zeus
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterElmisho
67% · 22 games
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMoOz
51% · 112 games
Game 2prediction correct30:19
M80 65%Hokori 35%
The model gave 65% on M80 — the game was taken by M80 in 27:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightK1
50% · 174 games52% · 146 games
LifestealerCostabile
Lifestealer
Bristleback
BristlebackILICH-
58% · 83 games44% · 81 game
LycanFCR
Lycan
Pangolier
PangolierDarkMago
50% · 204 games48% · 381 game
PhoenixGardick
Phoenix
Zeus
ZeusMoOz
47% · 79 games
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinElmisho
56% · 68 games
Model check result
Model favoriteM80 · 78%
Series resultM80 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2