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DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
M80win 2:0
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Infamousloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

M80

Snapfire
Snapfire
Elmisho · 24 games
21%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Elmisho · 23 games
57%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
MoOz · 17 games
35%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Elmisho · 15 games
53%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Vitaly · 15 games
33%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
MoOz · 14 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
payk · 14 games
36%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Elmisho · 14 games
64%

Infamous

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Hermit · 4 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
S1RENM · 2 games
50%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
JimmyCoff666 · 2 games
0%
Abaddon
Abaddon
JimmyCoff666 · 1 game
0%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 1 game
100%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
DM · 1 game
0%
Disruptor
Disruptor
JimmyCoff666 · 1 game
100%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Hermit · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
388 picks · 499 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
381 picks · 300 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
359 picks · 381 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
342 picks · 557 bans
46%
Batrider
Batrider
326 picks · 392 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
321 picks · 157 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
318 picks · 732 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
299 picks · 414 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Infamous
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% M80
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:10
M80 67%Infamous 33%
The model gave 67% on M80 — the game was taken by M80 in 22:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeK1
52% · 90 games47% · 87 games
Queen of PainS1RENM
Queen of Pain
Razor
RazorILICH-
52% · 122 games50% · 269 games
GyrocopterDM
Gyrocopter
Enchantress
EnchantressMoOz
53% · 194 games44% · 35 games
Night StalkerHermit
Night Stalker
Clockwerk
ClockwerkElmisho
56% · 234 games45% · 249 games
TuskJimmyCoff666
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct36:12
M80 66%Infamous 34%
The model gave 66% on M80 — the game was taken by M80 in 30:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinK1
41% · 35 games46% · 112 games
UrsaDM
Ursa
Phoenix
PhoenixILICH-
44% · 267 games51% · 143 games
BeastmasterHermit
Beastmaster
Marci
MarciElmisho
50% · 80 games58% · 237 games
TinyS1RENM
Tiny
Enchantress
EnchantressMoOz
57% · 174 games48% · 64 games
ZeusJimmyCoff666
Zeus
Model check result
Model favoriteM80 · 81%
Series resultM80 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2