PGL Wallachia Season 3. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
M80win 2:0series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Perro Negroloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
M80
Batrideroften banned
Elmisho · 24 games
Snapfire
Elmisho · 20 games
Phoenixoften banned
MoOz · 17 games
Dark Willow
Elmisho · 16 games
Doomoften banned
Vitaly · 16 games
Enchantressoften banned
MoOz · 16 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
payk · 15 games
Tuskoften banned
MoOz · 15 games
Perro Negro
Enchantressoften banned
Mjz · 3 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Wits · 3 games
Magnusoften banned
kendallx · 2 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Wits · 2 games
Phoenixoften banned
Mjz · 2 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
kendallx · 2 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
kendallx · 1 game
Chenoften banned
Mjz · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
453 picks · 370 bans
Clockwerk
421 picks · 540 bans
Batrider
375 picks · 474 bans
Lion
370 picks · 195 bans
Gyrocopter
359 picks · 582 bans
Phoenix
358 picks · 394 bans
Pangolier
354 picks · 585 bans
Beastmaster
340 picks · 848 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Perro Negro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% M80
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:15
M80 61%Perro Negro 39%
The model gave 61% on M80 — the game was taken by M80 in 35:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinK1
Troll WarlordWits
BeastmasterILICH-
Magnuskendallx
PangolierDarkMago
LichMjz
TuskElmisho
PhoenixMoOz
Game 2prediction correct42:21
M80 62%Perro Negro 38%
The model gave 62% on M80 — the game was taken by M80 in 42:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterK1
Troll WarlordWits
EarthshakerDarkMago
Magnuskendallx
Night StalkerILICH-
EnchantressMjz
Nyx AssassinElmisho
ClockwerkMoOz
Model check result
Model favoriteM80 · 75%
Series resultM80 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2