ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
M80win 2:0series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Perro Negroloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
M80
Batrideroften banned
Elmisho · 28 games
Snapfire
Elmisho · 20 games
Clockwerkoften banned
MoOz · 19 games
Phoenixoften banned
MoOz · 19 games
Doomoften banned
ILICH- · 18 games
Enchantressoften banned
MoOz · 18 games
Dark Willow
Elmisho · 17 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Elmisho · 17 games
Perro Negro
Enchantresssignature
Mjz · 10 games
Phantom Assassinsignature
Wits · 6 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
kendallx · 5 games
Ursaoften banned
Wits · 5 games
Lich
Mjz · 4 games
Magnusoften banned
kendallx · 4 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Wits · 3 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Wits · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
483 picks · 406 bans
Clockwerk
448 picks · 564 bans
Batrider
419 picks · 518 bans
Lion
411 picks · 221 bans
Gyrocopter
404 picks · 678 bans
Phoenix
402 picks · 445 bans
Pangolier
372 picks · 593 bans
Beastmaster
356 picks · 919 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 56%
Hero pool strength55% Perro Negro
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total68% M80
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:33
M80 59%Perro Negro 41%
The model gave 59% on M80 — the game was taken by M80 in 55:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterK1
Phantom AssassinWits
TimbersawILICH-
DawnbreakerOscar
EarthshakerDarkMago
EnchantressMjz
MuertaElmisho
ClockwerkMoOz
Game 2prediction correct23:17
M80 59%Perro Negro 41%
The model gave 59% on M80 — the game was taken by M80 in 38:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterK1
Phantom AssassinWits
BristlebackILICH-
TimbersawOscar
PangolierDarkMago
EnchantressMjz
Shadow ShamanElmisho
ClockwerkMoOz
Model check result
Model favoriteM80 · 68%
Series resultM80 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2