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ESL One Bangkok 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
M80loss 0:2
series probability
6%94%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Liquidwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

M80

Snapfire
Snapfire
Elmisho · 24 games
25%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Elmisho · 22 games
55%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Elmisho · 20 games
60%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Elmisho · 17 games
59%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
MoOz · 15 games
47%
Jakiro
Jakiro
MoOz · 15 games
33%
Phoenix
Phoenix
MoOz · 15 games
27%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
Vitaly · 14 games
43%

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tinysignature
Nisha · 29 games
72%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 27 games
59%
Razor
Razorsignature
miCKe · 24 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
iNSaNiA · 23 games
57%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 23 games
70%
Muerta
Muerta
Boxi · 23 games
57%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 21 game
71%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Boxi · 20 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
483 picks · 673 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
419 picks · 493 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
366 picks · 535 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
354 picks · 184 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
331 picks · 442 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
320 picks · 336 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
310 picks · 596 bans
53%
Alchemist
Alchemist
305 picks · 683 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 49%
Hero pool strength61% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total94% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct5:27
M80 21%Team Liquid 79%
The model gave 79% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 28:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
Juggernautpayk
53% · 34 games48% · 17 games
SlarkmiCKe
Slark
Bristleback
BristlebackILICH-
55% · 163 games48% · 99 games
InvokerNisha
Invoker
Chen
ChenMoOz
57% · 154 games44% · 176 games
PangolierSabeRLight-
Pangolier
Snapfire
SnapfireElmisho
47% · 295 games48% · 205 games
PhoenixiNSaNiA
Phoenix
48% · 149 games
TuskBoxi
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct11:37
M80 18%Team Liquid 82%
The model gave 82% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 29:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordpayk
49% · 106 games52% · 141 game
MagnusmiCKe
Magnus
Primal Beast
Primal BeastILICH-
49% · 267 games49% · 198 games
BeastmasterSabeRLight-
Beastmaster
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonElmisho
53% · 274 games53% · 129 games
Earth SpiritNisha
Earth Spirit
Tusk
TuskMoOz
43% · 295 games48% · 147 games
PugnaiNSaNiA
Pugna
57% · 327 games
BatriderBoxi
Batrider
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 94%
Series resultTeam Liquid 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2