LOOT.BET Pro Series Season 7. Юго-Восточная Азия · BO3
result vs predictionMYM Yloss 0:2
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Execrationwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
M Y
Brewmaster
LionaX · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Beebie · 1 game
Lunaoften banned
KNP · 1 game
Rikioften banned
Beebie · 1 game
Terrorbladeoften banned
KNP · 1 game
Undying
LionaX · 1 game
Execration
Void Spiritoften banned
Yowe · 14 games
Marsoften banned
Force · 11 games
Puckoften banned
Yowe · 11 games
Treant Protectorsignature
RR · 11 games
Ancient Apparitionsignature
RR · 10 games
Doomsignature
Force · 9 games
Elder Titansignature
RR · 9 games
Morphlingoften banned
Palos · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
418 picks · 169 bans
Ancient Apparition
310 picks · 465 bans
Mars
310 picks · 520 bans
Nyx Assassin
298 picks · 621 bans
Puck
295 picks · 735 bans
Snapfire
280 picks · 160 bans
Enchantress
276 picks · 358 bans
Tiny
264 picks · 217 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 42%
Hero pool strength56% M Y
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total60% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:28
M Y 44%Execration 56%
The model gave 56% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 31:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeKNP
Templar AssassinBob
Void SpiritBeebie
PuckPalos
ClockwerkLionaX
AbaddonRR
Game 2prediction correct28:29
M Y 46%Execration 54%
The model gave 54% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 34:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautKNP
MorphlingPalos
PuckBeebie
Ember SpiritBob
DisruptorLionaX
AbaddonRR
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 60%
Series resultExecration 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2