ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Mad Kingsloss 1:2series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Estar Backswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Mad Kings
Disruptorsignature
Gardick · 10 games
Grimstrokesignature
Genek · 10 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Lumière · 10 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Vitaly · 9 games
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Michael · 9 games
Svenoften banned
Lumière · 9 games
Treant Protectorsignature
Gardick · 9 games
Dark Seersignature
Vitaly · 8 games
Estar Backs
Bloodseekeroften banned
Mnz · 3 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Mnz · 2 games
Rubick
Michael · 2 games
Snapfire
Michael · 2 games
Dark Willow
Michael · 1 game
Grimstrokeoften banned
Michael · 1 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
Mnz · 1 game
Muertaoften banned
Michael · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
234 picks · 278 bans
Dark Willow
232 picks · 109 bans
Vengeful Spirit
225 picks · 271 bans
Pangolier
199 picks · 416 bans
Treant Protector
199 picks · 427 bans
Phoenix
196 picks · 263 bans
Earth Spirit
177 picks · 277 bans
Earthshaker
175 picks · 175 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 63%
Hero pool strength51% Mad Kings
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Estar Backs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:16
Mad Kings 47%Estar Backs 53%
The model gave 53% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 37:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinAdrx
WeaverMnz
BrewmasterSmAsH
Vengeful SpiritStingeR
Primal BeastMr.Jeans
PhoenixMichael
Dark WillowGenek
PugnaYadomi
Game 2prediction correct20:30
Mad Kings 44%Estar Backs 56%
The model gave 56% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 44:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinAdrx
GyrocopterMnz
PangolierMr.Jeans
WeaverMichael
BrewmasterSmAsH
ClockwerkStingeR
Dark WillowGenek
MuertaYadomi
Game 3prediction correct14:30
Mad Kings 46%Estar Backs 54%
The model gave 54% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 39:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaAdrx
Chaos KnightMnz
HuskarMr.Jeans
Dark WillowMichael
DawnbreakerSmAsH
Vengeful SpiritStingeR
InvokerGenek
PhoenixYadomi
Model check result
Model favoriteEstar Backs · 58%
Series resultEstar Backs 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3