Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Южная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Mad Kingsloss 0:2series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Gorillaz-Pridewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Mad Kings
Crystal Maiden
Prada · 5 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
NaoG · 4 games
Phoenixoften banned
Tano · 4 games
Marsoften banned
Sacred · 3 games
Snapfire
Prada · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Sacred · 2 games
Mirana
Tano · 2 games
Pangolieroften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 2 games
Gorillaz-Pride
Grimstroke
Cara · 4 games
Earth Spirit
d1smar · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
TaO · 2 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
d1smar · 2 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Cara · 2 games
Puckoften banned
TaO · 2 games
Bloodseeker
Benjaz · 1 game
Brewmaster
Benjaz · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
178 picks · 402 bans
Mars
169 picks · 308 bans
Earth Spirit
160 picks · 126 bans
Void Spirit
155 picks · 218 bans
Phoenix
134 picks · 151 bans
Keeper of the Light
121 picks · 208 bans
Nyx Assassin
116 picks · 401 bans
Rubick
115 picks · 62 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 57%
Hero pool strength52% Gorillaz-Pride
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Gorillaz-Pride
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:41
Mad Kings 47%Gorillaz-Pride 53%
The model gave 53% on Gorillaz-Pride — the game was taken by Gorillaz-Pride in 31:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith Kingdrakesh1t
PuckTaO
Void SpiritÑengoflow KELOKE
UnderlordBenjaz
48% · 21 game
Miranad1smar
22% · 15 games
Crystal MaidenCara
Game 2prediction correct39:54
Mad Kings 43%Gorillaz-Pride 57%
The model gave 57% on Gorillaz-Pride — the game was taken by Gorillaz-Pride in 44:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LeshracÑengoflow KELOKE
Nature's ProphetBenjaz
Drow Rangerdrakesh1t
Storm SpiritTaO
little data
Rubickd1smar
33% · 5 games
Witch DoctorCara
Model check result
Model favoriteGorillaz-Pride · 65%
Series resultGorillaz-Pride 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2