Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Южная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Mad Kingsloss 0:2series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Incubus Clubwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Mad Kings
Crystal Maiden
Prada · 5 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
NaoG · 5 games
Marsoften banned
Sacred · 4 games
Phoenixoften banned
Tano · 4 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
drakesh1t · 4 games
Snapfire
Prada · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Sacred · 2 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
drakesh1t · 2 games
Incubus Club
Marsoften banned
Jupiter · 5 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Benny · 5 games
Phoenixoften banned
Nuages · 4 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Jupiter · 3 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Jupiter · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
mini-` · 2 games
Elder Titan
Nuages · 2 games
Gyrocopter
Benny · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
231 picks · 492 bans
Void Spirit
212 picks · 267 bans
Mars
203 picks · 364 bans
Earth Spirit
184 picks · 153 bans
Keeper of the Light
161 picks · 264 bans
Phoenix
158 picks · 183 bans
Nyx Assassin
153 picks · 495 bans
Wraith King
144 picks · 185 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 56%
Hero pool strength57% Incubus Club
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Incubus Club
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:27
Mad Kings 33%Incubus Club 67%
The model gave 67% on Incubus Club — the game was taken by Incubus Club in 30:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernautdrakesh1t
TerrorbladeBenny
LeshracÑengoflow KELOKE
Void Spiritmini-`
51% · 12 games
TidehunterJupiter
49% · 21 game
PhoenixNuages
Game 2prediction correct1:20
Mad Kings 33%Incubus Club 67%
The model gave 67% on Incubus Club — the game was taken by Incubus Club in 13:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseekerdrakesh1t
LycanBenny
PangolierÑengoflow KELOKE
Puckmini-`
56% · 5 games
Sand KingJupiter
little data
Ancient ApparitionNuages
Model check result
Model favoriteIncubus Club · 77%
Series resultIncubus Club 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2