?
arrow_backBack to match
The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Mad Kingsloss 0:2
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Keyd Starswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Mad Kings

Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Gardick · 18 games
61%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
PiPi · 12 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Elmisho · 10 games
60%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Vitaly · 10 games
70%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
Genek · 10 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Genek · 9 games
33%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
DaaD- · 8 games
75%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
Michael · 8 games
38%

Keyd Stars

Snapfire
Snapfire
FCR · 8 games
38%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
KJ · 7 games
86%
Mirana
Mirana
KJ · 6 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Kingrd · 6 games
33%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
4dr · 6 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
FCR · 6 games
83%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Kingrd · 5 games
100%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
4nalog · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
540 picks · 580 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
460 picks · 227 bans
46%
Batrider
Batrider
417 picks · 752 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
372 picks · 666 bans
48%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
359 picks · 358 bans
48%
Morphling
Morphling
339 picks · 714 bans
52%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
332 picks · 810 bans
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
330 picks · 702 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 73%
Hero pool strength50% Keyd Stars
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Mad Kings
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:34
Mad Kings 59%Keyd Stars 41%
The model gave 59% on Mad Kings — the game was taken by Keyd Stars in 38:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckPiPi
46% · 131 game43% · 46 games
Troll WarlordCostabile
Troll Warlord
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinAdrx
55% · 134 games56% · 106 games
Keeper of the Light4nalog
Keeper of the Light
Dark Seer
Dark SeerOscar
55% · 71 game52% · 68 games
DawnbreakerFCR
Dawnbreaker
Monkey King
Monkey KingGenek
46% · 166 games44% · 165 games
TuskKingrd
Tusk
53% · 117 games
Treant ProtectorKJ
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction missed20:39
Mad Kings 57%Keyd Stars 43%
The model gave 57% on Mad Kings — the game was taken by Keyd Stars in 56:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaAdrx
56% · 81 game59% · 25 games
GyrocopterCostabile
Gyrocopter
Invoker
InvokerPiPi
46% · 78 games55% · 66 games
LycanFCR
Lycan
Earthshaker
EarthshakerGenek
52% · 138 games44% · 224 games
Ember Spirit4nalog
Ember Spirit
Snapfire
SnapfireOscar
39% · 318 games53% · 164 games
MiranaKingrd
Mirana
56% · 136 games
MarciKJ
Marci
Model check result
Model favoriteMad Kings · 63%
Series resultKeyd Stars 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2