Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Mad Kingswin 2:0series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 2:0
NLNo Limits Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Mad Kings
Clockwerksignature
Gardick · 17 games
Tiny
Elmisho · 17 games
Rubick
Gardick · 16 games
Disruptor
Gardick · 14 games
Ember Spiritsignature
4nalog · 13 games
Miranasignature
Thiolicor · 13 games
Pangolieroften banned
4nalog · 12 games
Silencer
Gardick · 12 games
No Limits Gaming
Doomoften banned
drakesh1t · 5 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
JP · 3 games
Silencer
CHAAANNN · 3 games
Snapfire
drakesh1t · 3 games
Tusk
Zxca · 3 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
CHAAANNN · 2 games
Hoodwink
Zxca · 2 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Alone · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
943 picks · 638 bans
Tiny
655 picks · 455 bans
Nature's Prophet
567 picks · 900 bans
Tusk
544 picks · 440 bans
Treant Protector
535 picks · 534 bans
Snapfire
507 picks · 336 bans
Death Prophet
482 picks · 1064 bans
Clockwerk
459 picks · 338 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 77%
Hero pool strength58% No Limits Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% No Limits Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed46:38
Mad Kings 41%No Limits Gaming 59%
The model gave 59% on No Limits Gaming — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 1:01:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetDaaD-
LunaJP
PuckPiPi
TuskAlone
BroodmotherArzenT
Death Prophetdrakesh1t
SnapfireGenek
Treant ProtectorCHAAANNN
51% · 115 games
Nyx AssassinZxca
Game 2prediction missed44:24
Mad Kings 41%No Limits Gaming 59%
The model gave 59% on No Limits Gaming — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 48:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendDaaD-
TerrorbladeJP
Storm SpiritPiPi
Doomdrakesh1t
Centaur WarrunnerArzenT
Void SpiritAlone
RubickGenek
HoodwinkZxca
54% · 43 games
DazzleCHAAANNN
Model check result
Model favoriteNo Limits Gaming · 64%
Series resultMad Kings 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2