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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Mad Kingswin 2:0
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
x5 Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Mad Kings

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Gardick · 17 games
65%
Rubick
Rubick
Gardick · 17 games
47%
Tiny
Tiny
Elmisho · 16 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Gardick · 14 games
50%
Broodmother
Broodmothersignature
Vitaly · 12 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
4nalog · 12 games
67%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Thiolicor · 12 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
4nalog · 12 games
25%

x5 Gaming

Mirana
Mirana
Wij · 5 games
60%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Benny · 4 games
75%
Enchantress
Enchantress
FCR · 4 games
25%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
Wij · 4 games
25%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
FCR · 3 games
100%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
FCR · 3 games
33%
Clinkz
Clinkz
Benny · 2 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Wij · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
993 picks · 673 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
663 picks · 486 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
597 picks · 951 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
561 picks · 435 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
528 picks · 355 bans
46%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
517 picks · 510 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
515 picks · 1139 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
487 picks · 365 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 64%
Hero pool strength51% Mad Kings
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Mad Kings
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct53:26
Mad Kings 53%x5 Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on Mad Kings — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 44:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingDaaD-
49% · 104 games55% · 124 games
Templar AssassinBenny
Templar Assassin
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerArzenT
49% · 45 games46% · 147 games
DoomFCR
Doom
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritPiPi
51% · 87 games48% · 76 games
JakiroWij
Jakiro
Disruptor
DisruptorGenek
51% · 111 games
Game 2prediction correct32:15
Mad Kings 53%x5 Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on Mad Kings — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 30:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkDaaD-
63% · 39 games45% · 179 games
MorphlingBenny
Morphling
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritPiPi
40% · 98 games59% · 25 games
Witch DoctorFCR
Witch Doctor
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightArzenT
50% · 70 games51% · 105 games
AbaddonWij
Abaddon
Mirana
MiranaGenek
53% · 102 games
Model check result
Model favoriteMad Kings · 56%
Series resultMad Kings 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2