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Khaz Modan Cup Season 2 · BO5
result vs prediction
Made in Philippineswin 3:1
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 3:1
LBZSloss 1:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Made in Philippines

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Rupido · 7 games
86%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Ken · 7 games
71%
Mars
Marssignature
Rupido · 6 games
67%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
Ken · 5 games
80%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Teehee · 4 games
25%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Rupido · 4 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
JG · 4 games
50%
Bane
Bane
Teehee · 3 games
100%

LBZS

Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Shanks · 14 games
43%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Shanks · 9 games
11%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
CatYou · 8 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
CatYou · 8 games
38%
Tusk
Tusk
CatYou · 8 games
25%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Shanks · 7 games
57%
Mirana
Mirana
CatYou · 6 games
17%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
Molasses · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
513 picks · 442 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
460 picks · 681 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
428 picks · 541 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
407 picks · 285 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
356 picks · 589 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
345 picks · 565 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
335 picks · 626 bans
47%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knight
333 picks · 653 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 50%
Hero pool strength63% Made in Philippines
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total61% Made in Philippines
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:27
Made in Philippines 57%LBZS 43%
The model gave 57% on Made in Philippines — the game was taken by Made in Philippines in 37:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageKen
63% · 12 games46% · 11 games
ZeusShanks
Zeus
Mars
MarsJG
56% · 130 games47% · 237 games
TinyCatYou
Tiny
Necrophos
NecrophosRupido
47% · 51 game
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanTeehee
50% · 55 games
Game 2prediction correct32:10
Made in Philippines 57%LBZS 43%
The model gave 57% on Made in Philippines — the game was taken by Made in Philippines in 28:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinKen
57% · 34 games48% · 146 games
LeshracShanks
Leshrac
Mars
MarsJG
52% · 72 games49% · 28 games
MarciCatYou
Marci
Sand King
Sand KingRupido
58% · 27 games
Weaver
WeaverTeehee
43% · 41 game
Game 3prediction missed34:39
Made in Philippines 56%LBZS 44%
The model gave 56% on Made in Philippines — the game was taken by LBZS in 56:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeKen
52% · 108 games53% · 176 games
Void SpiritShanks
Void Spirit
Puck
PuckJG
51% · 145 games51% · 192 games
TinyCatYou
Tiny
Brewmaster
BrewmasterRupido
49% · 40 games
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterTeehee
41% · 75 games
Game 4prediction correct28:12
Made in Philippines 61%LBZS 39%
The model gave 61% on Made in Philippines — the game was taken by Made in Philippines in 30:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautKen
55% · 37 games44% · 280 games
Ember SpiritShanks
Ember Spirit
Puck
PuckJG
54% · 108 games47% · 124 games
Skywrath MageCatYou
Skywrath Mage
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightRupido
48% · 90 games
Bane
BaneTeehee
62% · 169 games
Model check result
Model favoriteMade in Philippines · 61%
Series resultMade in Philippines 3:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 4